As someone who follows college baseball closely, I can’t help but feel that the traditional model of high school recruiting for Division I programs is heading toward extinction. A few factors are converging that make it clear that the future of college baseball recruiting is shifting, and high school athletes may no longer be the primary focus for D1 programs.
1. The Rise of the Transfer Portal
The biggest change in college sports over the last few years has been the explosion of the transfer portal. In baseball, where the roster size is large and scholarships are limited, D1 programs are increasingly turning to transfers to fill gaps. These transfers offer a proven track record at the collegiate level, and coaches can more accurately evaluate a player's readiness for the demands of D1 baseball. Recruiting high schoolers, on the other hand, involves significant uncertainty—will they develop as expected? Will they make the academic grade? How will they adjust to the rigors of college life?
In many ways, transfers are a safer, more immediate solution for D1 coaches, and I think this trend will continue to grow, especially as NCAA rules around transfer eligibility have loosened.
2. The Rise of JUCO Baseball
In addition to the transfer portal, junior colleges are becoming an increasingly important pipeline for D1 baseball programs. JUCO players are typically more developed and game-ready, often playing against tougher competition than some high schoolers. These athletes also have the advantage of having already adapted to the academic and athletic demands of college life, which is a major factor for programs looking to build a roster quickly.
JUCO offers a unique developmental environment for athletes who may have needed a couple of extra years to refine their skills or adjust to the higher level of play. Many players who don't immediately qualify for D1 baseball or who need time to mature both athletically and academically find a home at the JUCO level. From there, they can transfer to a D1 program with the experience and track record that coaches are looking for, making JUCO a valuable bridge for many aspiring athletes.
For D1 programs, JUCO players are seen as low-risk, high-reward athletes who have already proven themselves capable of handling the pressure and demands of collegiate sports. This makes JUCO an increasingly attractive option over the uncertainty of high school recruiting.
3. The Importance of Physical Size and Development
In recent years, college baseball has placed a much greater emphasis on physical size, strength, and maturity when it comes to recruiting players. D1 programs want athletes who are physically ready to compete at the highest level. The demands of a 56-game college season, high-intensity practices, and elite competition require players to be more physically developed than ever before.
High school players, by nature, are still maturing physically, and many may not yet have the size or strength needed to compete at the D1 level. While there are certainly outliers who defy this trend, the majority of top D1 programs are increasingly seeking athletes who have already reached a level of physical maturity—something that is more common with JUCO players or those in the transfer portal.
For instance, a 6’1”, 180-pound high school player may be talented, but he might not be able to match up physically with a 6’4”, 220-pound JUCO transfer who has already spent a couple of years in a college strength program. As the level of play becomes more competitive and the physical demands grow, programs are turning to athletes who have a proven physicality, making high school recruiting less of a priority for many top-tier D1 schools.
4. A Shift Toward “Ready-Made” Players
College programs, especially at the D1 level, are facing more pressure to win now. With the influx of NIL money, increased media attention on college sports, and more sophisticated analytics, athletic departments want to recruit players who are ready to contribute immediately. The high school game is often seen as a developmental process, whereas players coming from junior colleges or the transfer portal are typically expected to make an impact faster. As coaches continue to demand instant production, high school athletes will increasingly face competition from older, more experienced players.
5. High School Baseball IQ Is Often Too Low
One of the more overlooked aspects of D1 baseball is the mental side of the game. Baseball is a complex sport that requires players to make split-second decisions, read situations, and understand nuances that go beyond raw athletic talent. Unfortunately, high school baseball often doesn’t provide the same level of mental development that’s needed for elite-level competition.
Many high school programs don’t have the coaching or resources to teach players the finer details of the game. As a result, many high school recruits struggle with aspects of the game that are vital at the D1 level—situational hitting, defensive positioning, reading pitchers, and understanding in-game strategies. This leaves D1 coaches with a lot of work to do in terms of teaching basic baseball IQ to young athletes.
On the other hand, JUCO players or transfers have already experienced a more advanced level of competition and have often had to make faster, more informed decisions in pressure situations. Their ability to process information quickly and adapt to the flow of the game is generally much higher than that of high school players. This makes older, more experienced players much more attractive to D1 programs, where every game is critical and the mental aspect of the game is just as important as the physical one.
Conclusion
The combination of a booming transfer portal, the rise of JUCO baseball, increased emphasis on physical development, the need for "ready-made" players, and the gap in baseball IQ all point toward one inevitable conclusion: high school recruiting, as we know it, is on its way out. While I don't think high school baseball will become any less important as it is an incredible driver of team mindset, camaraderie, and playing under pressure. But, I do believe that for top-tier programs, the focus will shift further toward transfers, JUCO, and more fully developed players as the primary means of building a competitive roster. It's a tough reality for many high school players who dream of playing at the D1 level, but it's the direction the sport is heading and players and families that grow their mindset will handle the transition well.
Mindset Shifts
I want to leave the high school athletes and families that read this with some quick suggestions on mindset shifts that will help you navigate these transitions:
- If you have a D1 or bust mentality, that has to end.
- If you want to attend any 4-year college right out of high school and don’t have the grades, forget about it.
- JUCO baseball is going to get even more talented so get educated on the programs that provide development, culture, and paths forward.
- If you haven't prioritized the weight room and nutrition in high school, you'll be playing catch up trying to get on a radar.
- It'll be even harder to grind through the journey if you don't love the game and have a larger calling to it.
- Have an advisor or someone in your corner that has experience and empathy for navigating this journey.
While these transitions can feel challenging, every athlete and family that chooses to enjoy the ride and fully use the platform the Lord has given them excels in the experience. Find YOUR right fit connected to YOUR calling!
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